Moldovan economics ministry works out forecast of main medium-term macroeconomic indicators

Chisinau, 30 March /MOLDPRES/ - The Economics and Infrastructure Ministry (MEI) has worked out a preliminary variant of the forecast of the macroeconomic indicators for 2022-2024.   

While elaborating the forecast, decision-makers took into account the evolution of the national economy in the previous year, under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the main aspects of the world economy’s forecast, especially of the countries which are the principal commercial partners of Moldova. They also took into consideration the forecast as to the inflation rate and the Moldovan leu’s exchange rate, coordinated with the National Bank of Moldova.     

„After one year with major challenges, when Moldova’s economy was strongly hit by extreme climate conditions and the pandemic crisis, recording a decline of -7 per cent, a gradual revival of the economy is expected in 2021. According to forecasts, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will register a real increase of about 6 per cent in 2021 and in the next years (2022-2024), the economic growth will maintain on an ascendant trajectory of about 4 per cent, being close to the potential GDP,’’ MEI said.      

In 2021, the industrial sector will recover on a positive trend. ‘’Due to the improvement of the external demand expected in the region, as a result of the process of vaccination against the COVID-19 virus, the situation in the exporting branches will improve, including at the Free Economic Zones (FEZ), where a 3.9-per cent increase in industrial activities is anticipated in 2021. In the other forecast years, decision-makers expect a stable and positive evolution between 3 and 4 per cent of the industrial sector, with a stimulating factor being the growth of the investments in machines and equipment in the years before the crisis, which will prompt the enhancement of the productivity in the sector,’’ the Economics Ministry said.      

Following one year of deep drought, an increase in the agricultural production of about 29 per cent is anticipated in 2021. Nevertheless, because of the financial constraints of the small- and medium-sized producers, as a result of the 2020 year drought and the COVID-19 pandemic, the agricultural production will not return to the level recorded before the drought. In the next years, in the context of relatively friendly climate conditions expected, and increase in investments in the sector, a 3-5 per cent growth of the agricultural sector is forecast.    

Also, in 2021, the investment activity will continue to be hit by the consequences of the pandemic; yet, it will record positive values (+2 per cent). The public investments in infrastructure, including the ones financed from sources of development partners, will continue; yet, the budgetary limitations will not allow increasing them. Nevertheless, the friendly crediting situation, the tendency of the economy’s refurbishment will be factors due to positively contribute to the evolution of the private investments.   

A two-fold increase in investments is anticipated in the Free Economic Zones against the year before and decision-makers plan to resume the investment projects scheduled for 2020, as well as launch new projects in the conditions of the improvement of the external environment. In 2022-2024, the investments are expected to have a stable and positive evolution, with paces of growth of about 4 per cent annually.   

„At the same time, it is worth mentioning about the interdependence of the indicators regarded by the evolution of the pandemic, which presently have an uncertain character. In the conditions of the current epidemiological situation, the risk of reintroducing a system of severer restrictions for protecting the residents’ health and preventing the spread of COVID-19 is growing, which can influence the data forecast,’’ the MEI’s press release also reads.    

photo: MEI