Moldovan leu has stable behavior - expert

Chisinau, 1 November /MOLDPRES/- Moldovan leu, with the small fluctuations it has had this year, especially in the last five weeks, broadly has a stable behavior. Compared to the US dollar, in the last five years the Moldovan leu has remained virtually at the same level, and all the fluctuations it recorded last year and this year, for the most part, are determined by the global crisis and the fluctuations at external level, according to economic policy expert of the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) Viitorul Veaceslav Ioniță.

The expert said that in late September, there was an appreciation of the Moldovan leu against the base currencies, of 2.7%, compared to the beginning of the year, and in the last two weeks there is a depreciation and it slowly reaches the level of since the beginning of last year. "In my opinion, the Moldovan leu this year has a behavior that is rather an echo of what happened last year, it is the result of last year's phenomena," said Ionita.

The expert also said that in recent months we are witnessing an insignificant increase in the foreign exchange deficit in the domestic market, and the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) intervenes very weakly, because it considers it unnecessary and "here we agree with the position of the BNM, at way, the echo of last year ”. At the same time, this year we have an unprecedented loan from the banking system, which unfortunately does not generate production in the country, but - consumption, and this consumption generates imports. "Loans were taken, which entered the foreign exchange market, went abroad and come back in the form of goods. This increase in the population's consumption determines an increase in the demand for foreign currency ", said the expert.

The economic analyst is of the opinion that this year we will have some records, related to remittances. In the first nine months of the year, $ 1.2 billion has already entered the country. About as much as it entered 2019 for the whole year. By the end of the year, it could enter more than $ 1.7 billion. "Another important element is related to the fact that this year, with certainty, we will have an absolute record in the volume of currency sold by citizens", Ioniţă said.

"In my opinion, this sale of foreign currency, the remittances coming, plus the massive sales of foreign exchange, is determined by the unprecedented increase in consumption by the population, which in turn is determined by several factors, including loans, and creates a deficit in the market. foreign exchange. People are now putting their savings on the market, including last year's, and we have an unprecedented foreign exchange offer ", commented Veaceslav Ioniță.

"The situation is stable, for this reason the BNM interventions on the foreign exchange market are very weak, more symbolic. If last year the institution had to procure 232 million dollars to prevent the Moldovan leu from strengthening, this year it sold 31 million dollars, only to signal to the market that it will not allow the rapid depreciation of the leu , but the market is self-regulating and the exchange rate will remain stable with small fluctuations typical for this market ", the expert concluded.

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