Moldovan analytical centre maintains economic growth forecast at 2 per cent in 2014
16:22 | 11.12.2014 Category: Economic
Chisinau, 11 December /MOLDPRES/-The Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre maintains economic growth forecast at 2 per cent in 2014, despite a significant slowdown of the advance up to only 0.5-0.8 per cent, in the second half of 2014.
“The result is not so bad, if we consider the difficult economic, political and security environment in the region, as well as Russia putting trade restrictions on certain agri-food products,” the Expert-Grup centre’s executive director, Adrian Lupusor, said.
The forecasts were launched at a roundtable held today on the occasion of the presentation of a MEGA publication on analysis of economic growth in Moldova for 2014-2015. The experts anticipate an increase of about four per cent in 2015, and “the main challenges will deal with turning to good account of opportunities of trade liberalization with the EU, return to the Russian market, as well as re-orientation to alternative export markets."
Lupusor said a major medium- and long-term challenge for the Moldovan economy was ensuring a respectable advance of 5-7-per cent of the non-agricultural Gross Domestic Product.
The Moldovan economy needs more credit resources both for financing circulating assets and capital investments, and to reduce producers’ vulnerability to various shocks, it is necessary to develop insurance services. Therefore, turning more transparent and improvement of the country's financial sector should represent an immediate priority of the future government, the publication’s authors said.
According to them, the decrease of the consumption against a background of the lack of alternative factors of economic growth, represent another challenge for the next years. The moderation of the consumption in 2014 was triggered, in particular, by factors of situation and psychological ones (Moldovan leu’s depreciation, stressful international background, rumours about a bad situation in the financial sector), which might be maintained in 2015 too. At the same time, private investors, who represent the main engine of the investment activity, “are very cautious on this period, and the investments financed from abroad are dropping dramatically.”
The residents’ consumption is to be affected also by Russia keeping the trade restrictions, in parallel with the worsening of the economic and financial situation in this country and depreciation of the Russian rouble. This will hit the inflows of currency in Moldova at least by two channels: remittances from and exports to Russia, experts say.
To overcome these and other challenges well, Moldova in the next four years must take a decisive option towards the modernisation of the country and its rapprochement with EU, which should be accompanied by a string of systemic reforms of critical importance. Nevertheless, the promotion of such reforms is difficult, given a very fragile political class, and for this reason, the formation of the next government as soon as possible is of crucial importance, the participants in the roundtable said.
The economists concluded that, to facilitate economic advancement and improvement of the living standards, the future parliament and government must promote the following priorities: pressing ahead with the education system’s reform, fiscal consolidation, enhancing transparency and resilience of the banking system, justice system reform, pension system reform, and not in the least, modernisation of the quality system.
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