EBRD: Russian economy's fall down to affect countries in region, including Moldova

Chisinau, 20 January /MOLDPRES/ - A sharp decrease in the petroleum’s price might even put greater pressure on the economy of Russia, already fragile, which would affect countries in close relationship with the biggest east European economy, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts on regional economic prospects.

EBRD economists are expecting a decrease of the GDP of Russia by almost 4.8 per cent in 2015. The bank revised in diminution the September forecasts which showed a contraction of 0.2 per cent.

The Russian economy’s slowdown will affect the Central and Eastern European countries and Central Asia via remittances, trade and investments. EBRD is expecting an average contraction of 0.3 per cent in the region against the more optimistic forecasts of 1.7 percent from past September.

"This forecast also runs significant risks," EBRD Acting Vice President Hans Peter Lankes said. The official also referred to the bigger fall down of the price of petroleum than the forecast one, further escalading of the crisis between Ukraine and Russia, and possible increase of the incertitude in the Euro zone.

Moldova’s economy is to stagnate in 2015, whereas a contraction of 1.5 per cent is anticipated in Belarus and a decrease by 5 per cent in Ukraine. Romania, another important partner of Moldova, will record a rise of 2.8 per cent in 2015.

EBRD diminished the forecasts on increase of the Moldovan economy up to zero compared to 4 per cent anticipated in September 2014.

The World Bank (WB) estimates that Moldova’s economy will rise up by 3.0 per cent in 2015 and a speed-up of the increase to 3.5-5.0 percent will produce in the next two years, according to the Global Economic Prospects Report recently published by the bank.

WB experts said that Moldova continued to be vulnerable to risks related to the foreign environment, fiscal pressure and low capacity of the financial sector.

The mentioned report’s authors anticipate a decline of the Russian economy by 2.9 per cent and, respectively, a contraction of 2.3 per cent in Ukraine in 2015, whereas the Romanian economy will rise by 2.9 per cent.