Moldovan economic researches institute launches most optimistic forecast for economy's evolution in 2015

Chisinau, 23 April /MOLDPRES/ - The National Economic Researches Institute (INCE) forecasts a 0.6-per cent economic growth in 2015, in case of "an adequate management of the imminent risks." INCE is more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), which estimate a drop by one and respectively, two per cent of Moldova's economy. 

The authors of the publication "Tendite in Economia Moldovei" (Tendencies in Moldova's Economy), launched at the Institute today, say that, given the lack of an appropriate management of risks, "the national economy might enter a recession this year, with a two-per cent contraction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms against 2014 estimated, according to the pessimistic scenario."  

"Moldova's economy last year was hit by both external and internal factors, such as the armed conflict in Ukraine, stagnation of the Russian economy, toughening of the Russian trade policy for imports from Moldova," INCE director Alexandru Stratan has said. He added that the disturbances of the banking sector, volatility of the exchange rate of the national currency against the main foreign currencies, as well as the parliamentary polls had a negative impact.

According to the publication, the risks which affected the national economy in 2014 will persist, to a great extent, in 2015 too. In addition to these, there are also the local elections, enhancement of the inflationist pressures, toughening of the monetary policy, as well as other constraints, which might come from the already existing ones.  

The National Economic Researches Institute anticipates a stabilisation of the exchange rate to an average of 17 lei for one dollar and an inflation of 5.7 per cent, according to an optimistic scenario, and respectively, 18.5 lei per one dollars and an increase of prices by 8.5 per cent in case of a pessimistic one.  In the best case, the overall agricultural output is expected to reach the last year level, and the industry will grow by 2.6 per cent. An eventual decrease in agriculture, increase of the interest rates on credits, that will affect the investment activity, in the context of other constraints of the business environment, might trigger a five-percent drop in the industrial production. 

"We are happy with the fact that, for several years, more and more such studies have been made, which represent an alternative source of information,. In the present economic situation, it is very important that we see the reasons and recommendations and do our utmost to get a much more positive trend of sustainable development of the national economy," Deputy Economics Minister Octavian Calmic said.

The Economics Ministry and IMF forecast a decrease of the national economy by one per cent in 2015, after a 4.6-per cent growth. The World Bank anticipates a two-per cent recession of the Moldovan economy, as a result of the regional crisis, diminution of external demand, cut in money transfers and finances. Experts of the Independent Analytical Centre Expert-Grup forecast a 0.2 per cent drop of the GDP, in case of optimistic evolutions, while pessimistic expectations show a reduction of 1.8 per cent. Experts of the Viitorul (Future) institute expect a four-per cent decrease of the Gross Domestic Product.

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor M. Jantovan)