Moldovan experts ascertain worsening of immediate prospects of Moldovan economy, following stabilisation in early 2015

Chisinau, 10 August /MOLDPRES/ - The Anticipatory Composite Index, monthly calculated by Expert-Grup, and which aggregate related macroeconomic indexes, lost 1.6 points in last June, dropping to 87.8 points. Thus, "after a certain stabilisation in the beginning of this year, the index resumes the descendant tendency," experts of the Expert Grup Independent Analytical Centre said in the ninth issue of the Realitatea Economica  (Economic Reality) publication.  

Authors of the publication Adrian Lupusor and Alexandru Fala said that this evolution suggested a worsening of the immediate prospects for the national economy, associated with external constraints (economic crisis in Russia and Ukraine, Russian commercial restrictions, security crisis in Ukraine, slow recovery of EU's economies) and domestic ones (political volatility, banking crisis and restriction of the monetary and budgetary policy). 

The external and domestic demands are decreasing, according to Expert-Grup. In June 2015, the overall goods exports dropped by 19 per cent, mostly because of a 23-per cent decrease of the exports to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (preponderantly to Russia and Ukraine), as well as to other countries (mainly Turkey), by 26 per cent.

At the same time, experts said the exports to the European Union  were on the rise for the third month in a row, and the pace was gradually accelerated, which may show the effects of the free Trade Agreement with EU. The domestic consumption was also hit by remittances, which, in last June, "remained on a pronounced negative tendency, especially in the case of those from Russia," which account for about 52 per cent of all the transfers.      

The difficulties from the banking sector, along with the toughening of the monetary policy, create additional pressures  on the economy, the authors of the publication said. The new credits provided by the banks decreased by 29 per cent in June, and the share of bad credits in all the banking credits stays relatively high (14.4 per cent).  The toughening of the monetary policy exerted additional pressures (the basic rate increased from 8.5 per cent in last January to 17.5 per cent in July, which negatively affected the access to credits, and respectively, the crediting activity).

The economic difficulties, along with the political ones, as well as the hardships from the banking sector, hit the budgetary stability more and more. At the end of the first half of 2015, the collections from the value added tax (VAT) were by 400 million lei smaller than the planned level, triggered by a drop of imports and the decrease of the domestic consumption. Another about 400 million lei was not collected  (against the plan) because of the sale of state securities caused by a quick rise in their prices. Nevertheless, the main blow was triggered by the suspension of the financing by the principal development partners, which has led to a failure to collect about three billion lei against the planned level, experts also said. 

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor L. Alcaza)