Top European bank forecasts stagnation of Moldova's economy in 2016, 2-per cent growth in 2017

Chisinau, 12 May /MOLDPRES/ - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) maintains its forecasts, launched in last November, as regards the evolution of Moldova’s economy. EBRD anticipates stagnation in 2016 and a two-per cent growth in 2017 – according to the latest EBRD Regional Economic Prospects report, unveiled at the annual meeting of the Bank’s Board of Governors, held in London.        

The risks which may lead to recession come from “the significant vulnerabilities in the financial sector, drop in remittances, economic recession in Russia, challenges in fulfilling the state budget because of a decrease in the foreign financial assistance.” The evolution of the Moldovan economy in 2016 will depend very much on the performance of the agricultural sector and situation in the banking system, EBRD experts said. Among the positive moments, experts highlight the slowing of the paces of the decrease in exports, imports and money transfers from abroad.  

BERD revised upwards the forecast for Eastern Europe and Caucasus – a region to which Moldova belongs too – from minus 0.2 per cent, as anticipated in November 2015, to 1.4 per cent in May, as a result of much more optimistic expectations concerning the evolution of the economies of some countries like Belarus and Azerbaijan. The forecasts for Ukraine and Russia stay unchanged: stagnation at the zero quota and, respectively, a 12-per cent decrease.   

The Economics Ministry forecasts a one-per cent growth of the Gross Domestic Product in 2016 and a 2.5-per cent one in 2017, the IMF – 0.5 per cent and respectively, 2.5 per cent, while the World Bank anticipates a 0.5-per cent increase in the Moldovan economy in 2016 and a four-per cent one in 2017.  

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor A. Raileanu)