Moldovan economics ministry makes public updated forecast of macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2019

Chisinau, 20 May /MOLDPRES/- The Economics Ministry anticipates a one-per cent economic growth in 2016 against 1.5 per cent in October 2015, and a return to 2.5-4 per cent growth in 2017-2019.

The updated forecast of macroeconomic indicators for 2016-2019 was discussed within the Consultative Council under the Economics Ministry on 19 May. The economic decrease in Russia, crisis in Ukraine and economic recovery in the EU countries prompted the Economics Ministry to adjust the forecasts to new realities.

On the other hand, according to estimations, the recovery of the agricultural sector following a difficult 2015 year for the field will bring a positive contribution to the real sector and exports. The experts of the ministry expect a seven-per cent rise in the agricultural production. "The increase of the volume of agricultural products, as well as of goods which may replace and complement the import ones, will have a positive impact on the activity in the industrial sector. Yet, proceeding from the present internal and external context, the activity of the real sector will have a relatively low pace this year," the Economics Ministry said.  Thus, it is estimated that the industrial production will register a 2-per cent increase in 2016 against 2015. 

The export will decrease by 6 per cent against 2015, as a result of trends of development of the agriculture and industry, low foreign demand, especially, on behalf of Russia, as well as the decrease in prices for agricultural products on the world market.

Economics Minister Octavian Calmic said the probable risks that might contribute to changing the forecast scenario for 2016 were related to the banking sector, monetary and crediting policy, fluctuations of world prices for oil, poor economic growth and deflationary pressures in the Eurozone, uncertainty in the agricultural sector for 2016.

The forecast of 2.5-4 per cent economic growth in 2017-2019 is based on the improvement of the economic and financial context at the world level, more intense promotion of exports on the EU market, development and support by the state of enterprises of the real and private sector, including by attraction of direct foreign investments into the national economy, promotion of a prudent fiscal policy and implementation of reforms meant to reduce the inefficient public expenses. Also, ensuring the financial stability through maintaining a low inflation rate and stability of the exchange rate, etc. 

Under estimations, the rise of the Gross Domestic Product in 2017-2019 will be generated by a 4.7-per cent annual increase, in real terms ,of the industrial production and a 3.7-per cent growth of agricultural production, as a result of investment policy 's orientation towards performance programmes, modernizing local enterprises, infrastructure and development of the small business.

The important factor contributing to the national economy's growth, in the opinion of specialists from the Economics Ministry, will be increase in investments in material assets for long term, enhancement of competitiveness of local products on foreign market, increase in the domestic supply, extension of the production basis and respectively, increase of receipts into the state budget. Given the current economic situation, it is forecast that the volume of investments in material assets for long term will increase by 2.5-per cent on average annually in 2017-2019. 

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor L. Alcaza)