Moldovan economy records 0.8-per cent growth after recession during two quarters

Chisinau, 15 June /MOLDPRES/ - Moldova’s economy has recorded a 0.8-per cent growth in the first quarter of 2016. Statistics thus confirms estimations by analysts and authorities, who expect an advancement of one per cent this year.

The National Statistics Bureau (BNS) today announced the results for the first three months of 2016, which show an increase of the Gross Domestic Product  (GDP) up to 27 billion lei. The economy is gradually recovering after the recession of the last two quarters of 2015, and experts believe that the advancement might be relatively higher on the next months.   

According to BNS, the wholesale and retail trade, extractive industry and processing industry, information and communication, as well as the agriculture had the biggest contribution to the economic growth. The gross value added on the economy increased by 0.6 per cent. The volume of taxes on goods grew by 1.1 per cent against the same period of the last year.  

From the viewpoint of GDP’s use, the growth was due to a two-per cent increase in the end consumption of residents’ households. The volume of gross fixed capital formation was by 3.6 per cent under the level of the respective period of the year before. The net export (-4.3 per cent) also had a negative contribution to the increase in GDP. This was a consequence of a 5.6-per cent diminution of the export of goods and services, in conditions when the imports in goods and services increased by 1.8 per cent, BNS also said.   

”On the whole, the forecast by Expert-Grup of +2.5 per cent rise for 2016 seems to be realizable. Nevertheless, can we also speak about a qualitative recovery from the crisis? Let’s not get intoxicated with empty words! First of all, we have practically stagnation (+0.3 per cent), adjusted seasonally. Secondly, the GDP converted into US dollars remains lower than the level of last year. Thirdly, the growth takes place against a background of a decrease in exports (-5.6 per cent) and investments (-3.6 per cent) – two crucial engines, without which our economy cannot develop sustainably,” the executive director of the Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre, Adrian Lupusor, said.      

According to the expert, Moldova “needs an economic growth of at least 6-7 per cent, in order to catch up with the countries of the region and fix the structural imbalances. Therefore, we remain in systemic stagnation, despite a marginal statistical growth.”

The Economics Ministry forecasts a one-per cent economic growth in 2016 and a four-per cent advancement in the next years. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development anticipates a stagnation of the Moldovan economy this year, while the World Bank expects a 0.5-per cent growth.

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor L. Alcaza)