Moldova's economy grows 3.6 per cent in first half of 2015

Chisinau, 15 September /MOLDPRES/- Moldova's economy has registered a 3.6-per cent rise in the first half of 2015, above the estimations of analysts and authorities, who were expecting a 2-per cent increase at the most. The National Statistics Bureau (BNS) today announced the results for the first six months of the year, showing a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of up to 53 billion lei.

The results of the first quarter of 2015 are surprising, given that the final consumption has increased insignificantly, by 0.2 per cent, the foreign trade is decreasing, the pace of rise in agriculture dropped, and remittances decreased to the level of the 2009 crisis.

Yet, statistics data shows that the rise pace has significantly decreased to 2.5 per cent in the second quarter against 4.8 per cent in the first three months of 2015. Taking into account seasonal fluctuations, the advance stood at 2.9 per cent in April-June 2015, against 4.5 per cent in the first quarter.

According to BNS, the gross added value on economy brought the the biggest contribution to the economic growth, going up by 2.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2015 against the same period of 2014. All branches of economy, especially financial intermediaries and insurances, extraction industry and processing industry, wholesale and retail commerce contributed to the GDP growth, the statisticians said. Agriculture had a less sensitive influence.  

The Economics Ministry forecasts a one-per cent decrease in economy in 2015 after a 4.6-per cent rise in 2014. The International Monetary Fund expects a one-per cent economic contraction, and the World Bank - a 2-per cent one. Experts of the Expert Grup centre forecast a 0.2-per cent drop of the GDP in case of optimistic developments, whereas pessimistic predictions show a 1.8-per cent decrease.

The National Institute of Economic Research is the most optimistic, as it estimates a 0.6-per cent economic growth in 2015, in case of "a proper management of immediate risks". Yet, economists note that, if risks are not properly managed, "the national economy might enter a recession in 2015, according to the pessimistic scenario, with a 2-per cent GDP contraction estimated in real terms against 2014."

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor A. Raileanu)