International Monetary Fund maintains economic decline forecast for Moldova

Chisinau, 7 October /MOLDPRES/ - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains its estimates of the Moldovan economy contracting by 1 per cent this year and reduces the economic growth forecast from 3 to 1.5 per cent in 2016, according to the World Economic Outlook released today.

The IMF also anticipates that the annual inflation rate in Moldova will increase up to 8.4 per cent in 2015 from 5.1 per cent last year and the current account deficit will stand at 6.2 per cent. The IMF predicts a 9.3 per cent inflation towards the end of the year. The international financial institution revised the estimates on price increases and the balance of payments deficit as going up, against the forecast in April.

Moldova will return to an economic growth of 4 per cent in 2020, shows the world development report.

According to the report, the situation in Moldova this year will be better than in many countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). IMF predicts a recession of 2.7 per cent in the CIS in 2015, and an inflation rate of 15.9 per cent. The largest trading partners in the eastern area, Russia and Ukraine, will register an economic decline by 3.8 and 9 per cent respectively, and the economy of Belarus will contract by 3.6 per cent. IMF forecasts an annual inflation rate of 50 per cent in Ukraine and 15.8 per cent in Russia.

The Economics Ministry forecasts a fall of the economy by 1 per cent in 2015. Economically, this year will be a difficult one, and the public authorities appear not to be sufficiently prepared to face the difficulties, according to the MEGA report released by the Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre. Experts forecast a drop of 0.2 per cent of GDP in the case of optimistic developments, while pessimistic forecasts show a reduction of 1.8 per cent.

Moldova's economy grew 3.6 per cent in the first quarter of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Statistics show, however, that the growth rate has significantly reduced in the second quarter, to 2.5 per cent gross series against 4.8 per cent in the first three months of the year. Seasonally adjusted, the advance in April-June 2015 was 2.9 per cent against 4.5 per cent in the first quarter.

(Reporter V. Bercu, Editor A. Raileanu)