IMF forecasts 3.8-per cent growth of Moldova's economy in 2018

Chisinau, 9 October /MOLDPRES/ - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upwards its estimations concerning the evolution of the Moldovan economy in 2018 to 3.8 per cent, according to the World Economic Outlook report, published today. The last April report was anticipating a 3.5-per cent increase of the economy.   

Moldova’s economy will register a 3.8-per cent growth in 2018 and, respectively, in 2019, IMF forecasts in the October issue of the report on the prospects of the world economies. The prospects are above the average in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The International Monetary Fund anticipates an economic growth of an average of 2.3 per cent in 2018 and 2.4 per cent in 2019 for the CIS countries.   

IMF improved the forecast of increase of the Moldovan economy for 2018, as a result of the third evaluation of the programme on cooperation with Moldova from last March. Fund’s experts said that the increase in residents’ real revenues, the increase in the remittances of Moldova’s citizens working abroad and the effects triggered by the relaxation of the monetary policy will support the private consumption, while the private investments will slow down till the elections. The exports will stay under pressure because of the appreciation of the exchange rate, drop in agricultural exports and because of the stable domestic demand.  

The estimations for Ukraine are on the rise from 3.2 to 3.5 per cent and for Russia remain the same, 1.7 per cent for 2018.

IMF revised downwards the forecasts regarding the inflation rate to 3.6 per cent, against 4.7 per cent, as it was estimating in April 2018. According to the last report by the Fund, the current account deficit of Moldova will be of 7.4 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – a more reserved forecast against the last spring one, when it anticipated a deficit of 3.7 per cent.     

According to the National Statistics Bureau, in the first half of 2018, the Moldovan economy recorded a growth of 4.5 per cent in real terms against the same period of 2017, up to more than 81.7 billion lei – current market prices. The Economics and Infrastructure Ministry expects a GDP worth 163 billion lei and a growth of the latter by 3.8 per cent. Data by the Economics Ministry shows that, in 2013-2016, Moldova’s GDP increase by 40 billion lei in nominal value and an advance of 50 billion lei is expected till 2021.    

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor A. Raileanu)