Annual inflation rate stands at 1.2 per cent in Moldova in last October, the lowest in 2018

Chisinau, 9 November /MOLDPRES/ - The National Statistics Bureau (BNS) today informed that the annual inflation rate had dropped to 1.2 per cent in last October, - the lowest one this year. At the same time, the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) estimates a decrease of the inflation rate to 1.9 per cent in late 2018. The annual inflation rate will diminish till the end of this year and will drop to 1.9 per cent, under the lower limit of the variation interval of plus/minus 1.5 percentage points, according to BNM’s inflation report No 4.    

For the first two consecutive quarters of 2019, the annual inflation will be under the interval and in the end of the next year it will increase over the higher limit of the variation interval. According to BNM, the pace of growth of the prices for food products will increase till the second half of the next year; subsequently, it will decrease beginning with the last quarter of the 2019. The annual pace of increase of prices will have a descending trajectory, recording negative values during the last two quarters of the forecast horizon.    

The accepted demand will remain disinflation-oriented during the forecast period, being prompted by the restrictive character of the real monetary conditions, by the one of the fiscal policy from the next year and will be tempered by the stimulating external demand.    

BNM revised upwards the forecast of the inflation rate for 2018 to 3.3 from 3.2, as it anticipated in last August and, respectively, from 4.9 per cent to 5.4 per cent for 2019.  

The balance of the risks related to the present forecast is described as pro-inflationist. Among the risks coming from the external environment would be the higher international prices for oil. From the domestic environment, the fiscal sector represents another source of multiple pro-inflationist risks, to which the anticipated reform of the wage payment in the budgetary sector, extending the providing of meal vouchers can be assigned, as well as the recent fiscal reform, the effects of which are still to be propagated.    

According to BNS, the annual inflation rate in October 2018, respectively 1.2 per cent, evolved in line with the expectations and was under the variation interval of the target of plus/minus 1.5 percentage points from the inflation target of 5 per cent. The annual inflation for food products was of 2.3 per cent, non-food products – 2.5 per cent and the services provided to residents - minus 2.3 per cent.   

The statistic data made public today also shows that the consumer price index stood at 100.4 per cent in October 2018 against the month before, against 1.5 per cent in October 2017. The increase of the average consumer prices by 0.4 per cent was prompted by the increase in prices for food products by 0.6 per cent, increase in prices for non-food products by 0.3 per cent and by the growth of the tariffs for providing services to residents by 0.2 per cent.  

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor A. Raileanu)