World Bank estimates 3.8-per cent growth of Moldovan economy in 2019

Chisinau, 9 January /MOLDPRES/ - Moldova’s economy will  grow by 3.8 per cent in 2019, fueled by private consumption, against the background of a real increase in salaries and improvement of remittances, according to the January issue of the Global Economic Prospects report.  

At the same time, the international financial institution expects Moldova to register a 4.8-per cent increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2018, up by one percentage point against the forecast from last June. Moldova’s economy will grow by 4.8 per cent, due exclusively to a strong domestic demand, stimulated by the real increase in salaries, especially in the public sector, and the improvement of remittances, the Chisinau-based World Bank Office has earlier said.  

”In the basic scenario, we are much more optimistic than we have usually been,” a WB expert, Marcel Chistruga, said.

The paces of economic growth will be more moderate on the next years; WB expects a 3.5-per cent increase of the economy in 2020 and 3.2 per cent in 2021.

According to the World Bank’s report, in Europe and Central Asia, the region which includes Moldova, the economy slowed down to 3.1 per cent in 2018, from 4 per cent in 2017. The World Bank expects a slow-down of the growth of Russia’s economy by 0.3 percentage points to 1.5 per cent in 2019, and respectively, by 1.1 percentage points, to 2.9 per cent of Ukraine’s economy. The forecast concerning the evolution of the Romanian economy was reduced from 4.5 to 3.5 per cent.  

The World Bank considers that the fiscal deficit for 2018 will remain under the forecast level of 2.5 per cent of GDP. The disinflation tendencies, triggered by the appreciation of the Moldovan leu and lower import prices, “will remain valid till the end of 2019.” Yet, for the medium term, WB says that “the inflation will increase progressively and this will happen against the background of a stronger domestic demand, as well of unexpected increases in regulated prices, especially in the second half of 2019.”  

The Economics and Infrastructure Ministry (MEI) estimated a 4-per cent growth of the economy in 2019, against 3.8 per cent, as it has earlier forecast. The pace of real increase in the GDP was grown “preponderantly as impact of the fiscal reform concerning the implementation of the single quota for the tax on the income of private people: this will allow increasing the residents’ available incomes and hence, will stimulate the domestic consumption and, respectively, the economic growth. It is worth mentioning that no essential changes have been carried out for the next years of forecast,” MEI said in the updated forecast for November 2018.