Moldovan economists expect economic recession in 2015

Chisinau, 27 October /MOLDPRES/- The National Institute of Economic Researches (INCE) launched the “Moldovan Economic Trends” study today. The authors of the study say the Moldovan economy will enter a recession phase in 2015, in spite of its 3.6-per-cent growth recorded in the first quarter of the year. According to them, the two-per-cent shrink in the GDP in 2015 “is certainly a regression in Moldova’s economy, whereas its quick re-launch in the next years would be a quite nice, but probably, too optimistic forecast”.

“Negative forecasts on the GDP evolution in 2015, unveiled in April 2015, had been confirmed by the enforcement of more risks anticipated in the beginning of the year, and mainly, by the drought, negative influence of external factors, inflation pressures, financial crisis and its effects on the economy and the political crisis,” the head of the INCE, Alexandru Stratan said.

According to its optimistic scenario, the INCE forecast a 0.6-per-cent growth in 2015, and a two-per-cent fall, according the pessimistic one.

A scientific researcher, Victoria Fala, noted that “the circumstances created by internal and external factors are unfriendly, whereas the conditions that should encourage the existence of the business environment diminish their development prospects. Given these stances, we must take consolidated efforts to reform the investment climate and improve the competitiveness of local producers.”

On the other side, economic experts believe that the extent, origins and effects of the problems that came up in 2015, “could trigger a negative impact on Moldova’s further development”. However, they do not exclude a return to a 3 to 5 per-cent economic growth in 2016.  

Deputy Economics Minister Octavian Calmic stressed that the ministry had recently revised the forecast in decrease to minus two per cent, which he described as “pessimistic.” The ministry revised the forecasts, being sure that, in reality, the economy “might do miracles, both in the positive and negative senses.” The official declared himself “rather optimistic” and believes that Moldova’s economy could record even a slight growth in 2015.  

“We should mention the fact that they rely a lot on the state’s intervention in improving the investment climate in Moldova and re-establishment of residents’ confidence in the financial and banking bodies, in order to boost the economic growth in 2016. According to forecasts by the ministry, the national economy in 2016 might record a 1.5-per cent yearly increase in the GDP, in real terms, against the background of a slight improving of the micro- and macroeconomic indicators,” the deputy minister said.  

”The analysis of the forecasts included in “Moldovan Economic Trends” “serve as a reliable information support both for those interested from Moldova and international organisations," said a team leader of the project, Support for Implementation of the Free Trade Agreement in Moldova, Tina Golfi, said.  

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor M. Jantovan)