Moldovan economy contracts in third quarter of 2015

Chisinau, 15 December /MOLDPRES/ - Moldova's economy decreased by 3.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2015, above analysts' estimations, who expected a 2-2.5 per cent cut of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) against the same period of 2014. The National Statistics Bureau (BNS) today announced the results for the first nine months of this year, showing a fragile 0.5 per cent increase in GDP, up to 88.8 billion lei.

BNS data shows that the economy has had a clearly descending evolution from one quarter to another. Thus, in the first three months of 2015, the advance was of 4.8 per cent, after which a contraction of the growth pace followed to 2.5 per cent in the second quarter, and a 3.7-per cent decline in the third one.

The National Statistics Bureau also said that, seasonally adjusted, the decrease had been of 4.1 per cent in July-September 2015.

According to BNS, the agriculture, forestry and fishing had negative contributions to GDP, with a Gross Value Added of 17.4 per cent in an unfriendly year for the sector. The Gross Value Added on the economy dropped by 3.9 per cent in all. The volume of taxes on goods, collected in the national public budget, decreased by 2.6 per cent against the same period of 2014; yet the degree of influence on GDP's contraction was insignificant.          

More significant positive contributions on the index of physical volume of the Gross Domestic Product were recorded in such economic activities as financial intermediations and insurances, extractive industry and real estate transactions, BNS also said.

The Economics Ministry forecasts a two-per cent cut in the economy for 2015, after a 4.6-per cent increase last year. The International Monetary Fund expects a one-percent economic contraction, while the World Bank anticipates a two-per cent one in 2015, as a result of the regional crisis, decrease in the external demand, money transfers and financings. Experts of the Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre forecast a 0.2-per cent fall of the Gross Domestic Product in case of optimistic developments, while pessimistic predictions show a 1.8-per cent reduction.

The National Institute of Economic Researches is most optimistic, as it estimates a 0.6 per cent economic growth in 2015, in case of "a proper management of the imminent risks." At the same time, economists say that, in case of a lack of an adequate risks management, "the national economy might enter a recession this year, according to the pessimistic scenario, a two-per cent contraction of GDP in real terms is estimated against the 2014 year."

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor M. Jantovan)