Expert-Grup forecasts slight economic recovery in Moldova in 2016

Chisinau, 6 April /MOLDPRES/- The Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre forecasts a slight 2.5-per cent economic recovery in 2016, - an almost thrice lower pace against the needed level to catch up with the countries of the region, experts said at a today’s launch of MEGA publication.

Moldova’s economy decreased by as little as 0.5 per cent in 2015, despite unprecedented domestic and external constraints, being close to the basic scenario of the Centre’s 0.8-per cent forecast. The economic downturn proved to be relatively moderate. The main factor that mitigated the 2015 economic shocks was a 25-per cent depreciation of the national currency, which discouraged imports, against a background of a dramatic drop in remittances and real wage, and attenuated pressures on exports, which resulted in an increase in the balance of net export, the publication’s authors noted.

In economists’ opinion, the seriousness of the current recession is not manifested by the Gross Domestic Product's (GDP) dynamics, but “rather by the perpetuating of uncertainty and economic instability, which will maintain in the next at least five years. Moreover, if systemic reforms are not sped up, especially the ones in the financial, banking, justice and energy sectors, Moldova runs the risk of staying in mediocre growth for the next ten years”.

The economic growth will be seriously hit by the banking fraud, said participants in the MEGA conference on forecasts and risks of the Moldovan economy's growth for 2016-2017. Other constraints are “freezing or even failure to get foreign assistance” and “undermining of the economic competitiveness, triggered by a slow pace of increase in labour productivity in relation to the pace of wage rise.”

“The governance crisis from the banking sector represents a major vulnerability of the Moldovan economy. For this reason, it is necessary to urgently elaborate and implement a comprehensive plan on reforming the banking system, with emphasis on bolstering investigations on bank fraud, improving transparency and quality of bank shareholders, fortifying independence and regulatory competences of the National Bank of Moldova, as well as de-offshorization of the banking system, Expert-Grup director Adrian Lupusor said.

The Analytical Centre anticipates a moderation in inflation, which will positively influence the real economic growth and will motivate BNM to gradually relax the monetary policy.

The Economics Ministry anticipates a 1.5-per cent increase in the Moldovan economy in 2016.

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor L. Alcaza)