Economy experts say 2018 year to bring Moldova positive economic growth, though too slow, amid major risks

Chisinau, 14 December /MOLDPRES/ - The Moldovan economy in 2018 will grow by as little as four percent against the previous year, amid the lack of sustainable models of development, according to experts of the Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre, which launched an ordinary issue of the MEGA economic magazine today.   

Experts’ forecasts, however, are more optimistic than the ones of the authorities and the International Monetary Fund, which expect a three-percent economic growth, and of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which anticipates a 3.5-per cent increase.    

According to analysts, the hypothesis of next year economic growth would be based on “the increase of the agricultural production, continuation of the external budgetary support and increase of residents’ consumption.” Nevertheless, the forecast shows also a string of concerns regarding the competitiveness of the economy and the incertitude connected with the 2018 parliamentary polls, which might affect business environment’s decisions to invest, with repercussions on the banking crediting, Expert-Grup said.      

Experts noted that it was necessary to rethink the model of Moldova’s economic growth by carrying out systemic reforms, which will have an impact on the quality and dynamic of the economic growth in the next years.  In this respect, the improvement of the Moldovan economy’s competitiveness “must remain, in continuation, the first priority for the authorities.”  

Moldova constantly misses the competition from the region for external sales markets and foreign direct investments (FDI), ranking among the last countries of the Central and Eastern Europe in terms of the share of exports in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and volume of FDI per capita, experts also said. Moreover, Moldova misses the competition also for its own labour force, - a phenomenon confirmed by the increase in the number of people with higher education who annually leave the country. Thus, the authors of the survey said that, amid the lack of substantial improvements in the critical development sectors, Moldova will face more and more constraints to be able to ensure economic growth.

As solutions, experts reiterate the need to reform the institutional framework, which would ensure the observance of the principles of rule of law state and fighting corruption, as well as the improvement of the business climate, with emphasis on the necessities of the small- and medium-sized enterprises, which, as a rule, are most vulnerable. Experts also recommend to improve the governance at the banking and non-banking institutions, fully implement the mechanism of electronic public procurement, as well as foster reforms dealing with the implementation of the commitments of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, in order to turn to good account the benefits provided by this commercial regime. The carrying out of these reforms is the only valid strategy of economic development, no matter the electoral cycle or the political colour of the government.

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor A. Raileanu)