Official statistics on annual inflation rate confirm forecast by National Bank of Moldova

Chisinau, 13 May /MOLDPRES/ - The annual inflation rate in last April stood at 3.2 per cent, against 2.8 per cent in March 2019 and confirms the forecasts by the National Bank of Moldova (BNM). The central bank expects the consumer prices index to increase till the end of this year.   

The National Statistics Bureau (BNS) today informed that the annual inflation on foot products in April 2019 was 4.5 per cent against the same period of the year before, on non-food goods – 3.7 per cent and on the services provided to residents – 0.5 per cent, respectively.

The consumer prices index in last April grew by 0.8 per cent against March 2019. The increase in the average consumer prices was triggered by a 1.7-per cent growth of prices for food products, 0.3-per cent rise in prices for non-food products and services provided to residents, each.

The highest increases in prices in April 2019 against the same period of the previous year were recorded in vegetables, respectively 40.5 per cent; on the other hand, the prices for fruits dropped by 13.9 per cent, for sugar – by 6.3 per cent and the eggs cheapened by 5.1 per cent. The tariffs for electric energy decreased, on average, by 9.9 per cent in last April against the same period of 2018 and the tariffs for gas and thermal energy remained unchanged.  

In an inflation report launched in February 2019, the National Bank of Moldova said that the annual inflation would increase till the end of this year, after which the inflation’s trajectory will be inverted and will drop by the end of the forecast horizon. In the first quarter of this year, the inflation rate was under the target variation interval of 5 per cent+/- 1.5 percentage points; yet, in late 2019 and early 2020, it will increase above the interval, registering a maximal value of 7.4 per cent in late 2019.    

The annual rate of increase in the prices for food products will grow till the end of this year; afterwards, it will decrease in 2020. The annual pace of increase in the regulated prices will record an increase, except for the fourth quarter of 2020. The annual pace of increase in prices for fuels will have a descending trajectory till late 2019; afterwards, it will increase insignificantly in early 2020 and will maintain a relatively constant trajectory by the end of the forecast horizon, the inflation report also reads.     

BNM forecasts a yearly inflation rate of 4.9 per cent for 2019 and, respectively, five per cent, in 2020.

The BNM executive committee has recently approved the report on inflation No 2,2019, due to be published on 16 May 2019.