National bank revises downward inflation rate to 3.3 per cent for 2018 in Moldova

Chisinau, 04 May /MOLDPRES/ – The National Bank of Moldova (BNM) revised downward inflation forecast for 2018 at an annual average of 3.3 per cent, compared with 3.7 per cent as anticipated in   Inflation Report №1, launched in February 2018. It is the fourth time within recent ten months when central bank reduces the inflation forecast for 2018.

BNM expects an average inflation rate of 4.9 per cent in 2019, compared with 4.7 per cent previously. Disinflationary pressures will persist for most part of 2018 against a background of economic growth of more than 3 per cent. "Thus, aggregate demand, according to current forecast, will remain disinflationary over upcoming two years, largely due to monetary terms, economic cycle, as well as internal and external factors," said BNM.

According to the BNM’s information and media communication service, annual inflation rate will decrease from 4.7 per cent in March 2018 to 2.2 per cent on average for the fourth quarter of 2018. Subsequently, inflation will return to   variation range of   target in the first half of 2019.

Previously, BNM expected annual inflation rate to diminish continuously from 7.3 per cent in December 2017 to around 2.5 per cent in quarter four of 2018.

The state budget for 2018 was set on an inflation rate of 4.3 per cent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure (MEI) forecast an increase in the consumer price index by 4.1 per cent in 2018.

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor L. Alcaza)