Official statistics on inflation rate confirm forecasts by National Bank of Moldova

Chisinau, 11 June /MOLDPRES/ – The annual inflation rate continued to decline rapidly reaching 2.8 per cent in May versus 3.7 per cent in April. The data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS) confirms forecasts of the National Bank of Moldova (BNM), expecting consumer price index to diminish continuously.

The BNM has recently appreciated that annual inflation rate in April 2018 stood at 3.7 per cent and will rise in May 2010 from range of 5 plus/minus 1.5 percentage point target range. The new factors occurred as to contribute to an insignificant deviation of short – term trajectory of inflation from forecast, said BNM. Thus, change in electricity tariff was postponed in first quarter, which led to a higher trajectory of regulated prices in second quarter of 2018. This will reverse in second half of 2018 due to a more pronounced anticipated decrease in tariff. Also, the risks associated with higher than expected international oil prices may generate inflationary pressures in 2019, reflecting into a possible stronger tariff adjustment in 2019.

According to official statistics, annual inflation in food products was 4.2 per cent in May, non – food goods – 2.7 per cent and services provided to population – 0.4 per cent. In May the consumer price index stagnated at zero in relation to April.

According to Inflation Report №2, the annual inflation rate will shrink from 4.7 per cent in March 2018 to 2.2 per cent on average for quarter IV of 2018 below lower bandwidth of ± 1,5 percentage points from inflation target of 5 per cent. The annual average will return to range of target variation within first half of 2019.

(Reporter V. Bercu, editor M. Jantovan)