National bank revises downward inflation rate forecast for 2019 in Moldova

Chisinau, 09 February /MOLDPRES/ – The National Bank of Moldova (BNM) has revised the inflation rate forecast for 2019 to 4.9 per cent, compared with 5.4 per cent as forecasted in Inflation Report №04 in 2018. In November 2018, the BNM expected prices to increase by 0.5 percentage points more than forecasted previously, and 4.9 per cent, respectively.  

The forecast for the inflation rate for 2020 was increased from 4.9 per cent to 5 per cent. The BNM considers that the risks and uncertainties associated with the inflation outlook are based on the evolution of international oil prices and moderation of world economy. The internal ones refer to the harvest of 2019, the timing and magnitude of adjustment of tariffs to regulated services, and the possible reduction in prices of medicines.

The state budget (BS) for 2019 was built on an inflation rate of 4.9 per cent and an increase in the gross domestic product (PIB) in real terms of 4 per cent.

The Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure (MEI) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimate that the annual average consumer price index will be 4.9 per cent in 2019 and 5 per cent in 2020.

The annual inflation rate in Moldova dropped to 0.9 per cent in 2018, well below the level recorded in 2017, when the consumer price index was 7.3 per cent. The inflation declined considerably as a result of the rise in prices of food products by 2.2 per cent, non – food goods – by 1.7 per cent and of lower inflation of services provided to population by 2.3 per cent, according to data of the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS).