MDL maintains depreciation trend
14:08 | 16.04.2019 Category: Economic
Chisinau, 16 April /MOLDPRES/- The national currency is down against the European and US ones, Moldovan leu depreciating by 2.6 percent from early April against the US dollar and 3.4 percent against the euro, according to data by the National Bank of Moldova.
“MDL had in April the biggest depreciation in the past three years,” IDIS Viitorul expert Veaceslav Ionita said.
He said “this depreciation is determined by two factors: the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar on international markets plus 15 bani and the depreciation of the leu against the euro and dollar basket with 52 bani.”
Economist Sveatoslav Mihalache explains the depreciation of leu, which, in his opinion, will continue, through the negative political context, namely the political uncertainty surrounding the country after the parliamentary elections and the possibility of early elections. Otherwise, it would be "a mere fluctuation of the national currency".
Sveatoslav Mihalache added that the same is true of the rise in import prices to gas by 26 percent, and a possible acceleration of the inflation rate.
In his opinion, in the next two- three months the level of resistance might be at MDL 17.90 for one US dollar, in the third quarter - 18.40, and in the fourth quarter of this year 18.70 lei for one dollar.
The Director of the Banking sector programme of the Expert-Grup center, Sergiu Gaibu, said that there are two causes that have led to the depreciation of the national currency: reducing remittances and increasing the trade deficit.
“BNM has enough leverage at the moment, but it is important the new government to take measures to develop production and exports and temper populist policies, "Gaibu said.
In the past three years, MDL had a clear appreciation trend, down from 19.98 lei per US dollar in late 2016 to 17.1 in late 2017 and respectively, 16.65 lei per US dollar in late 2018. The Ministry of Economy forecasts 17.56 lei per dollar in late 2019, 18.32 in 2020 and 18.54 lei per dollar by the end of 2021.
